All images have links that lead to original source when clicked.
Trades in the NHL are as complex as trades in other leagues. Similar to other leagues, there are trades that are seen as irrelevant to a casual fan (Jakov Novak to MTL), trades that are seen as moderate level (Evgenii Dadonov to DAL for Denis Gurianov), and blockbuster trades, often containing either a superstar or two (Erik Karlsson 3 way trade) or a very high amount of pieces per team (Erik Karlsson to SJS). Some trades are viewed as lopsided in value, and some are viewed as equal. There are many reasons why some of these trades are seen that way, but some of these reasons are overlooked.
An example trade we will use to evaluate trade value as of right now is this:
1. Player value
There are five players in this trade. Three are being traded to Montreal, two to Vancouver. Dakota Joshua is a fourth line winger on a league minimum deal. He could slot in as a fourth line option for the Habs with Christian Dvorak injured and Sean Monahan being traded in this mock trade. Tyler Myers is a decent defenseman, but his cap hit being $6,000,000 means that his value is likely negative, which offsets Joshua's value and then some. He could play on Montreal's bottom pair if he is not waived and sent to the minors to make space for some younger players such as Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron. Danila Klimovich was a former second round pick in 2021, and likely projects to have a third line ceiling. Klimovich likely offsets the negative value from Myers, and could play in the middle-six with AHL Laval.
Sean Monahan is a solid middle-six option for any team, being defensively responsible and versatile enough to play all three forward positions. If he does not get injured, his value is a second round pick, possibly more if a GM gets desperate. He would be a good option for the Canucks if they decide that Conor Garland, Brock Boeser, or Anthony Beauvillier are not top six players (for the record, we feel like all three of those players are proper top six options, and in the case that Vancouver feels the same, Monahan is a great third line option). Gustav Lindstrom was a once-promising right shot defenseman, but his development has stalled and he is currently a #6 or #7 defenseman. He could play on Vancouver's third pair with any of Christian Wolanin, Akito Hirose, or Jack Rathbone.
All in all, the Canadiens are most likely giving up more value in terms of players by approximately a 2nd round pick and 4th round picks worth of value.
2. Draft pick value
Many trades in the NHL involve draft picks, as does this mock trade. It was previously stated that it seems like the Canadiens are giving up more value by a 2nd and 4th round pick, and they acquire those picks from Vancouver; the 2nd round pick is in 2025, and the 4th round pick is in 2024. However, the Canucks are receiving a 5th round pick back from Montreal. This means that currently the Habs are losing the value of a 5th round pick in this trade.
3. Players bumped down the lineup
The most overlooked part of a trade is who is forced out of the lineup by new acquisitions. Sometimes, a player is dropped down a forward line/defense pair which lowers their production, and other times they are dropped out of the lineup entirely, and sometimes sent to the AHL. Below are examples of the Montreal and Vancouver lineups before the trade (courtesy of CapFriendly):
Notable players in AHL: Arber Xhekaj, Chris Wideman (when healthy)
Notable players in AHL: Danila Klimovich, Akito Hirose, Christian Wolanin, Aatu Raty
And this is what the rosters look like after the trade:
Notable players in AHL: Arber Xhekaj, Chris Wideman (when healthy), Danila Klimovich
Notable players in AHL: Akito Hirose, Christian Wolanin, Aatu Raty
As we can see from this, the roster in terms of players is mostly unchanged. The same players are in the lineup in both screenshots, but some players have moved around.
For the Canadiens, Alex Newhook has been bumped from the first line to the third line, as he has to play centre with Monahan now gone. Additionally, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield now have to play with Josh Anderson, a line that did not work very well last season, but it's a line that may be the only one that works without moving the centres around. Additionally, Johnny Kovacevic is now a healthy scratch, replaced by Tyler Myers.
For the Canucks, Vasily Podkolzin is now on the fourth line, with the newly acquired Sean Monahan taking his spot, but Ian Cole is now getting more minutes on the second pair with Tyler Myers gone. Taking Cole's old spot is Gustav Lindstrom, who will play with Jack Rathbone.
The main takeaways from these lineup changes are as follows:
- Newhook gets less TOI, will be less effective
- Podkolzin is on the fourth line, but his lack of production is replaced by Monahan
- Podkolzin's development will be slightly stunted due to low TOI
- Ian Cole's production will go up
- Suzuki, Caufield will be held down by Anderson
4. The impact of lower production
This point really only applies to teams that are rebuilding or retooling, and are hoping for a high draft pick. With Sean Monahan and Gustav Lindstrom gone, replaced by less effective replacements, as well as the projected drop in production from Suzuki, Caufield, and Newhook, the Canadiens may drop a spot or two in the standings from the loss of production. This could be the difference between drafting a player like Konsta Helenius (pre-trade) versus drafting a player like Artyom Levshunov (post-trade).
So, who wins the trade?
Looking at it from a pure value standpoint, it is likely that the Canadiens do indeed lose the trade. However, hidden variables such as projected production drops and the team's drop in the standings (which aren't necessarily good things in the short run, but will greatly benefit the team in the long run) could see Montreal emerging as a winner of this trade. Nevertheless, we can also look from a standpoint where Vancouver also wins the trade. They shed $3,890,000 in cap space, which could be used to acquire better playoffs if they want to make a playoff push, as well as already improving the team with the acquisitions of Sean Monahan and Gustav Lindstrom. All in all, this is likely a win-win trade.
Comentários